Ok, I'm a numbers geek. For what it's worth I started tracking new members last month, from 2/13/12-3/13/12 the Horde grew 10.5%. Number of members 2/13 - 2121, 3/13 - 2345.
Ok, I'm a numbers geek. For what it's worth I started tracking new members last month, from 2/13/12-3/13/12 the Horde grew 10.5%. Number of members 2/13 - 2121, 3/13 - 2345.
Steel cased ammo is bound to accelerate horde expansion.
For every member here, there are x>1 number of Grendel owners out there. I just ran into one at the 3-gun competition down in Carbon County, and he said he's getting one-hole groups with iron sights. His buddy was there to confirm, after shooting the rifle too.
I also look at how many thousands of Grendels are being sold, and the demand that exists right now, and it's only increasing. Hunting and recreational target shooting will be the driving factors in this, combined with the AR-15's popularity as a ubiquitous rifle/carbine for general & specialized use.
Just yesterday a co-worker that I don't see very often because of scheduling sought me out to ask about building a Grendel. Out of the blue ... He'll probably be joining us on this forum in the near future. I said it to him and I'll say it again; I think the 6.8 SPC will hang around awhile but it's gone as far as it's going to go. The Grendel is rising.
Agreed on all of the above.Originally Posted by LRRPF52
In my personal environment the ratio of board members to other Grendel owners is 7 to 1.... I am the one board member, and I've personally equipped seven others who aren't members. They each have one rifle and I have three for a total of 10 Grendels just in my tiny sphere of influence so far. I'm not just a pusher (LOL), I'm an addicted user as well.
It seems likely there will be some additions this year as well.
Most people aren't really all that knowlegeable about their hobbies, shooters included. Marketing that tells you what you want to hear ( this new round is the greatest deer/hog/elk cartridge ever ) works especially well on them.
And once you have purchased the particular product, you're emotionally invested in it being a worthwhile purchase, as not wanting to feel or look duped.
With regards to the Grendel, I know it isn't the most ideal long-range cartridge, but it is an awesome intermediate cartridge that is probably the most optimum for hunting medium game using the AR15 platform. This will drive sales into the future as the popularity of the AR15 continues to spread like wildfire, and people use it more and more as the go-to hunting platform.
FYI, Horde continues to grow, new forum member up 9% last month.
213 new member from 3/13 - 4/14.
Depending on different studies, between 40 - 50% of all US homes have a firearm. That's 124 to 155 million people in a house with guns. What percentage of those homes have AR15's? Is it 1%, 2%, 3%? As the AR15 becomes more and more popular in a growing trend of popularity that really started as early as the 1980's, who knows how many AR15's are in US private ownership alone. In my neihborhood of roughly 200 homes, I know of at least 6 families with at least 1 AR15, and that's just through chance contact with a few neighbors. I wouldn't be surprised if 20-40 of the homes had AR15's. Being in Utah, I know that 65-70% of homes own firearms, and the most popular rifle I see at the range is the AR15 easily, with bolt guns coming in second.
I've seen one statistic from BATFE that in 2008, AR15's accounted for 8 percent of all firearms and 22 percent of all rifles made in the U.S. and not exported, totaling 337,000 AR15's manufactured that year, with 2009 exceeding that figure easily.
Is that complete rifles sold? I think it is since lowers are transferred as a receiver/frame, not a complete firearm. How many barrels were sold in each year?
If 1/8th of all AR15 owners have builds, for 2008, that would have been an additional 42,125 AR's. What was the growth from 2009 to 2010 to 2011? Assuming a % based on the insane rate of increase with NICS checks, we can make some rough calculations.
If 337,000 AR15 sales were transacted from manufacturers to retailers, and all of those were sold out of the 12,709,023 NICS checks in 2008, then that equates to 2.651% of sales. How many of those NICS checks were for lowers?
In 2009, there were 14,033,824 NICS checks, so at least 372,036 AR15's sold, not including face-to-face and transfers of lowers, and not including sales of barrels.
In 2010, there were 14,409,616 NICS checks, so that would indicate roughly 381,998 factory-built AR15's sold, with no change in the rate of AR15 manufacture assumed.
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports
Also, a NICS check often is done for multiple sales. I rarely order just one lower receiver, since I want to take advantage of sales and offest the cost of the transfer fee. How many of those NICS checks were for multiple guns?
We're probably looking at 400,000 factory AR15's made & sold last year, with at least that being made or sold this year, since NICS checks have really spiked in 2012.
What percentage of these are Grendels? I wouldn't be surprised if Grendels accounted for at least 1% of those, or 4,000 sold per year average in the last 3 years.
I just called Bill A. to get his insight, and he said ammo consumption is a good indicator. Wolf sells about 2 million rounds per year, and Hornady does small batches in 200-250 thousand throughout the year, while AA does 500 thousand per year. That's about 3 to 4 million rounds per year.
Figure in the average ammo consumption between shooters, and you have a rough number of Grendel owners.
Grendels started selling in 2004, and this is the beginning of 2nd Quarter 2012.
Last edited by LRRPF52; 04-16-2012 at 11:18 PM.
The real tough part is that only gives you a very rough estimate, since I shoot thousands of rounds a year, but only buy a couple hundred, generally just to restock my brass supplies!
"The root cause is not that islam has a fundamentally flawed ideology with violence and degradation for all those overcome by its ravenous doctrine or the intended spread of its evil dominance in ever increasing areas but that there is a spiritual battle that is being waged between good and evil."
Von Gruff
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