Stopping power by Caliber

[bwaites]

This article is a must read.

I'm placing it here because it really is a Technical Knowledge kind of post, even if it isn't directly related to the Grendel. Most of us shoot/carry a sidearm, and these results are very interesting.

Greg gave me permission to post the entire thing, so here goes:

An Alternate Look at Handgun Stopping Power
Greg Ellifritz

I’ve been interested in firearm stopping power for a very long time. I remember reading Handguns magazine back in the late 1980s when Evan Marshall was writing articles about his stopping power studies. When Marshall’s first book came out in 1992, I ordered it immediately, despite the fact that I was a college student and really couldn’t afford its $39 price tag. Over the years I bought all of the rest of Marshall’s books as well as anything else I could find on the subject. I even have a first edition of Gunshot Injuries by Louis Lagarde published in 1915.

Every source I read has different recommendations. Some say Marshall’s data is genius. Some say it is statistically impossible. Some like big heavy bullets. Some like lighter, faster bullets. There isn’t any consensus. The more I read, the more confused I get.

One thing I remember reading that made a lot of sense to me was an article by Massad Ayoob. He came out with his own stopping power data around the time Marshall published Handgun Stopping Power. In the article, Ayoob took his critics to task. He suggested that if people didn’t believe his data, they should collect their own and do their own analysis. That made sense to me. So that’s just what I did. I always had a slight problem with the methodology of Marshall and Sanow's work. For consistency purposes, they ONLY included hits to the torso and ONLY included cases where the person was hit with just a single round. Multiple hits screwed up their data, so they excluded them. This lead to an unrealistically high stopping power percentage, because it factored out many of the cases where a person didn't stop! I wanted to look at hits anywhere on the body and get a realistic idea of actual stopping power, no matter how many hits it took to get it. So I started collecting data.

Over a 10-year period, I kept track of stopping power results from every shooting I could find. I talked to the participants of gunfights, read police reports, attended autopsies, and scoured the newspapers, magazines, and Internet for any reliable accounts of what happened to the human body when it was shot.

I documented all of the data I could; tracking caliber, type of bullet (if known), where the bullet hit and whether or not the person was incapacitated. I also tracked fatalities, noting which bullets were more likely to kill and which were not. It was an exhaustive project, but I’m glad I did it and I’m happy to report the results of my study here.

Before I get to the details, I must give a warning. I don’t have any dog in this fight! I don’t sell ammo. I’m not being paid by any firearm or ammunition manufacturer. I carry a lot of different pistols for self defense. Within the last 2 weeks, I’ve carried a .22 magnum, a .380 auto, a .38 spl revolver, 3 different 9mm autos and a .45 auto. I don’t have an axe to grind. If you are happy with your 9mm, I’m happy for you. If you think that everyone should be carrying a .45 (because they don’t make a .46), I’m cool with that too. I 'm just reporting the data. If you don’t like it, take Mr. Ayoob’s advice….do a study of your own.

A few notes on terminology…

Since it was my study, I got to determine the variables and their definitions. Here’s what I looked at:

- Number of people shot

- Number of rounds that hit

- On average, how many rounds did it take for the person to stop his violent action or be incapacitated? For this number, I included hits anywhere on the body. To be considered an immediate incapacitation, I used criteria similar to Marshall's. If the attacker was striking or shooting the victim, the round needed to immediately stop the attack without another blow being thrown or shot being fired. If the person shot was in the act of running (either towards or away from the shooter), he must have fallen to the ground within five feet.

I also excluded all cases of accidental shootings or suicides. Every shot in this study took place during a military battle or an altercation with a criminal.

- What percentage of shooting incidents resulted in fatalities. For this, I included only hits to the head or torso.

- What percentage of people were not incapacitated no matter how many rounds hit them

- Accuracy. What percentage of hits was in the head or torso. I tracked this to check if variations could affect stopping power. For example, if one caliber had a huge percentage of shootings resulting in arm hits, we may expect that the stopping power of that round wouldn’t look as good as a caliber where the majority of rounds hit the head.

- One shot stop percentage- number of incapacitations divided by the number of hits the person took. Like Marshall’s number, I only included hits to the torso or head in this number.

- Percentage of people who were immediately stopped with one hit to the head or torso

Here are the results.

.25ACP-

# of people shot- 68

# of hits- 150

% of hits that were fatal- 25%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.2

% of people who were not incapacitated- 35%

One-shot-stop %- 30%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 62%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 49%



.22 (short, long and long rifle)

# of people shot- 154

# of hits- 213

% of hits that were fatal- 34%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.38

% of people who were not incapacitated- 31%

One-shot-stop %- 31%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 60%


.32 (both .32 Long and .32 ACP)

# of people shot- 25

# of hits- 38

% of hits that were fatal- 21%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.52

% of people who were not incapacitated- 40%

One-shot-stop %- 40%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 78%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 72%


.380 ACP

# of people shot- 85

# of hits- 150

% of hits that were fatal- 29%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.76

% of people who were not incapacitated- 16%

One-shot-stop %- 44%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 62%


.38 Special

# of people shot- 199

# of hits- 373

% of hits that were fatal- 29%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.87

% of people who were not incapacitated- 17%

One-shot-stop %- 39%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 55%


9mm Luger

# of people shot- 456

# of hits- 1121

% of hits that were fatal- 24%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.45

% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%

One-shot-stop %- 34%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 74%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 47%


.357 (both magnum and Sig)

# of people shot- 105

# of hits- 179

% of hits that were fatal- 34%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.7

% of people who were not incapacitated- 9%

One-shot-stop %- 44%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 81%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 61%


.40 S&W

# of people shot- 188

# of hits- 443

% of hits that were fatal- 25%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.36

% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%

One-shot-stop %- 45%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 52%


.45 ACP

# of people shot- 209

# of hits- 436

% of hits that were fatal- 29%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.08

% of people who were not incapacitated- 14%

One-shot-stop %- 39%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 85%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 51%


.44 Magnum

# of people shot- 24

# of hits- 41

% of hits that were fatal- 26%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.71

% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%

One-shot-stop %- 59%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 88%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 53%


Rifle (all Centerfire)

# of people shot- 126

# of hits- 176

% of hits that were fatal- 68%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.4

% of people who were not incapacitated- 9%

One-shot-stop %- 58%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 81%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 80%


Shotgun (All, but 90% of results were 12 gauge)

# of people shot- 146

# of hits- 178

% of hits that were fatal- 65%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.22

% of people who were not incapacitated- 12%

One-shot-stop %- 58%

Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 84%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 86%

See remainder and discussion in second post.

[Bob Duncan]

I have taken courses at TDI and Greg is a real pro. You can probably contact him via the TDI website, link below. Greg is the guy front and center with the big grin.

http://www.tdiohio.com/contact.htm

[Longshot_34]

Excellent read! Interesting results.

I'd be willing to say that money is better spent on training than on the latest wonder bullet.

[LRRPF52]

Here's a great article by Rob Pincus. I wish more trainers and writers would do the same thing: Be forthcoming with things they now realize or feel they are wrong about, after learning and evolving.

http://www.imakenews.com/valhalla/e_...43S%2cb5STCPqd

I have come to the exact same conclusion for my carry gun, and wish I had not purchased a S&W M&P in .40, but in 9mm instead. I'm not sure a barrel conversion will work for me, but I'm considering it.

[coastguardchas]

As a small arms instructor in the USCG I trained a lot of folks to fire and hit accurately with both .45 and 9mm, shotgun and M16, but saw no results of any acual shootings. During my full time job, I was onscene of many shootings, mainly 9mm, probaly hardball, and with people shot several times and surviving. The ones who didn't survive were hit with a larger caliber or a .22 lr. I shot a pig with a Glock M27 .40 SW, 135gr hp @ 40 yds with devastating results. A .45 acp 230gr hp provided the same results at about the same distance. My opinion, use the 9mm as last choice for a carry gun.. Chas

[LRRPF52]

There are a lot of folks who carry 9mm's as plainclothes carry guns, as well as their secondary sidearms for CQB who would disagree. Most street thugs are not such great shooters, so their marksmanship skills and the results therefrom are not to be viewed as cases for or against a particular caliber or tool.

I used to be a "full-size 1911 .45 ACP gold standard for carry gun" guy, but not anymore. I used to consider it blasphemy to suggest that a 9mm is a worthy fight-stopping caliber. The reality is that I can fire more 9mm's into someone, or transition from one target to another with faster recovery than I can with .40 S&W or .45 ACP.

With the same type of projectile design, you would be hard-pressed to find a difference between wounds from a 9mm and .40 S&W. Another thing I hate about having to shoot in a plainclothes environment is hearing loss, and I can tell you that .45 ACP will jack your ears up badly. 9mm isn't as bad outdoors, and you can get more shots on-target within a tighter shot placement spread than you will with .45 ACP and .40 S&W.

I know from my training and threat-based needs that I most likely will not fire only one round if someone is going to justify potential deadly force by their actions towards me or my family. They will become a bullet magnet, meaning at least 5 shots to their center of center 1/3rd vital zone as it presents to me, with detailed head shot for quick failure drill. It takes almost daily high-volume range sessions with a .40 S&W or .45 ACP to achieve the same rapid shot placement as it would for a weekly or even monthly training regimen with 9mm for me, plus the 9mm provides more capacity at less weight.

Several real-world studies on bullet performance comparing 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP using the same projectile types (Winchester SXT's, Speer Gold Dots, Corbons) actually favored the 9mm, with the .40 S&W a hair behind it, and the 230gr .45 ACP's falling much further than the smaller calibers. Other unpublished real-world results from certain communities caused them to push .45 ACP out from the primary caliber for their Offensive Handguns, and they are often cited as the reason why you need a .45 ACP.

A well-trained shooter will get the job done with any of the 3 main calibers, but it takes more money, range time, and shot recovery to get it done with .40 & .45 ACP. 9mm's have been killing people for a long time. Stopping Power is best defined as the will of someone to win the fight for their life more than the other(s), not a particular tool that they use. I would like to stack the deck in my favor with ammo capacity and shot recovery, not bullet diameter, especially since I carry the same or similar performance ammunition.

[Mutt]

More mass delivers more energy into the target. I used to carry .45 hydroshocks religiously because it delivers more energy than a smaller bullet. Plus, permanent wound cavity bleeds them out quicker. A larger bullet is going to leave a larger wound cavity. The person who bleeds out first looses .... LOL. I'm not against 9mm hollowpoints. But, when using ball ammo as we did in the military, the 9mm failed miserably. Sure, they killed but there were many more walking wounded from the 9mm than they got back in the days with the old 1911's. Of course much of this was do to the 9mm ball. I still prefer the .45 over 9mm or .40 because it's less likely to over penetrate. The simple fact remains though, that shot placement is everything. I've been known to carry a small .22 auto when all I'm wearing is a t-shirt becasue it's small enough for a pocket gun. Even a .22 with good shot placement is going to do more for survival than no gun at all.

[LRRPF52]

The .45 ACP's biggest problem is its mass...it tends to not perform in many hollow point loads, since the mass maintains bullet shape as it slowly flies through soft tissue mediums after filling with clothing, and also deflects off lighter bone than most would think.

There are two primary schools of thought on bullet performance related to stopping a human threat:

1) Exsanguination
2) CNS Severence

I don't adhere to either as the route by which to approach stopping a lethal human attacker, since exsaunguination doesn't bleed people out fast enough to keep them from being able to still inflict injury or death on you (recall Miami 1986 & Platt), and 1st-round CNS shots are more for precision rifle marksmen. I do know of actual scenarios that were exceptions to the "head shot first" with a pistol, but they are rare.

The school of thought I personally subscribe to currently is explosive precision violence to psychologically and physically stop dead a lethal attacker. Basically think of something more along the lines of a very quick Bill Drill with a head shot follow-up in reserve if necessary, in a closing engagement, with trapping range contact shooting and hand-to-hand as the next stages in a worst-case.

Out of the numerous people I pester about such things, one particular scenario sticks out to me: I interviewed a shooting survivor last year at SHOT who was a cop in Florida. He had chased down this 18-year-old kid who had just shop-lifted some petty merchandise at the mall. Upon reaching him after jumping over several fences, he grabbed the kids sweater, from which a fist fight ensued. The officer flew back into a landscaping pool at a self-storage property they were on, and began spitting out his lower row of teeth. "Damn that kid hit me HARD!" was what was going through his head in that moment. The kid stood over him with a Glock 21 .45 ACP, which he had just used to shoot the officer in the face. The kid then placed three more shots into the officer's chest and turned to get away. The officer was wearing his armor...

The officer propped himself up on his right hand, drew his Glock 22 .40 S&W and proceeded to fire into the kid with a single hand position, at which point the kid turned and re-engaged the officer. The fight ended with the kid on top of the officer and the officer made the final shot, which was a contact shot to the skull, ending the fight. They both had run to slide lock...

The fight started with a .45 ACP to the head and ended with a .40 to the head. A total of 27 rounds had been expended. What I would hope for those evaluating their personal protection posture is to understand the psychological aspect of the will to survive a competition for life, the different training techniques and procedures that could be involved, and lastly, the tool selection considerations, particularly, magazine capacity.

[hm2 clark]

Wearing a sweater in Flordia should have ben a tip off that somthing was out of kilter.

[JASmith]

Wearing a sweater in Flordia should have ben a tip off that somthing was out of kilter.

I didn't catch the time of year or where in Florida it happened.

It got down to 8 degrees F on the last Christmas we spent in Florida. Fort Walton Beach surprises a lot of folks with how cold it can get in Florida!

Of course there's practically no mountains between there and the north pole, so the cold air masses can flow down...