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+--- Thread: Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? (/showthread.php?tid=23078)
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-16-2021
I am unfortunately from N.Y.! That being said never thought that by stating obvious analytics as delusional, conspiratorial, or naïve those phrases are usually brought up by groups that want to shut down speech or debate.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - grayfox - 03-16-2021
No one is shutting down your speech, but they are commenting on it for sure. And so far I have seen no analytics other than, like I said, the financial SEC data that every public company is required to post.
I'm not defending Vista or any other company and am ambivalent as far as most "mgt decisions"... after all they got out of the firearms biz (I think b/c the politics was too hot for them) but turned around and re-invested that sale money into buying up assets from the Remington bust... so they've signaled an intention to stay in the shooting business. But they compete for the big $$ from the institutional investors along with all the other leisure sector companies in the stock market... and unless they've got huge monopoly power already like Bezos and Amazon, they are not likely to survive any attempts to "corner" a market with such a small market capitalization.
I'm still waiting on your financial analysis details..............
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - grayfox - 03-16-2021
By the way, A5 or somebody please make up some popcorn!!!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-16-2021
1. Vista did make a BILLION dollars that is undeniable.
2. Their yearly portfolio was strong enough to acquire Remington's ammunition line for $81.4 MILLION dollars in the final quarter of 2020.
3. According to NASDAQ VSTO according to their analytics by Zacks Investment Research, based on 6 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.63. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.11. Why would you need a report based on 10 quarters? https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/vsto/earnings
4. If you are right and their earnings to debt ratio was worse in later quarters than their revenue increases would even be even greater. Which would mean that their slowing the supply has worked.
5. Yes, by flooding the market you can shut down competition. This is done by having enough liquidity for buying materials in large quantities or out right owning or BUYING the mines of the raw materials thus cutting your costs down as well your price! Now Olin / Winchester, already does this looks like federal might be primed to do this as well and why wouldn't they with a B I L L I O N dollars in hand?
6. If you are 60% of the market share of ANY product and supply basically most ammunition makers how would they compete if they a. do not have the means or capacity to meet their demands or b. are DEPENDENT on your products? There aren't any options short term in ammunition makers right now they have to but primer from basically 2 providers!
Think OPEC and the 79' oil embargo did they "flood" the market? They literally had the engine of the FREE world over a barrel! Think Russia and their Natural gas pipeline into Europe, via Syria. If they wanted to they can dissolve the E.U. in HOURS, this when oil was trading below a penny in the summer of 2020!
7. To think that the gun industry hasn't seen their portfolio's grow in the last year is a conspiracy. Smith and Wesson alone doubled their sales from last year. https://www.forbes.com/sites/aaronsmith/2021/03/04/gun-sales-double-for-smith--wesson/?sh=5f98ffff7933
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-16-2021
You are missing the point. It is not the point that that it is a bad or risky move, to build a primer facility during a shortage, that is OBVIOUS! The whole point is if you believe Vista and Olin, then why didn't they modernize, expand or warehouse since 1993 it is not like we never had an ammo shortage since 2020? Again, if they were that bad in business they would have ended up like Remington, with a BILLION dollar DEBT instead of a BILLION dollars in backorders! The point is even easier to make BECAUSE primers are so dangerous and explosive. They had the means to ramp up years ago! Something does NOT add up! To call it conspiracy is lame and to blame it on hoarding is even lamer!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-16-2021
Nether does hoarding...LOL!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-16-2021
[quote=lazyengineer]So....I guess the cardboard tube cartel was responsible for the Toilet Paper shortage during COVID?
The last time I checked I can buy toilet paper, it doesn't cost 100 X's more than it was prior, so that does not equate, DOES IT?!
When you are in the toilet paper business I am sure they are smart enough to make the paper tube that comes with the roll! Too bad ammo companies have figured that much out if you make ammo that you maybe would want to make primers as well! Winchester and Federal have figured out as much! The problem is we rely on a cabal and take their word on the business they DOMINATE and at this point if it turns out to be true they are slowing down production I cannot blame them!
To me there has been a run on ammo since 1993, YET they cannot seem to foresee other runs that seem to have happened and are happening every 6 months since. Talk about conspiracies!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-16-2021
I also comment without having to to rely on calling someone a conspiracy theorist that is lame.
I did list a link from NASDAQ I will post it again!
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/vsto/earnings
Tell me when you find yours.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-16-2021
[quote=lazyengineer]So....I guess the cardboard tube cartel was responsible for the Toilet Paper shortage during COVID?
The last time I checked I can buy toilet paper, it doesn't cost 100 X's more than it was prior, so that does not equate, DOES IT?!
When you are in the toilet paper business I am sure they are smart enough to make the paper tube that comes with the roll! Too bad ammo companies have figured that much out if you make ammo that you maybe would want to make primers as well! Winchester and Federal have figured out as much! The problem is we rely on a cabal and take their word on the business they DOMINATE and at this point if it turns out to be true they are slowing down production I cannot blame them!
To me there has been a run on ammo since 1993, YET they cannot seem to foresee other runs that seem to have happened and are happening every 6 months since. Talk about conspiracies!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-16-2021
Actually VSTO has seen profits INCREASE from the same quarter as last year here is a link from NASDAQ!
According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 6 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.63. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.11.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/vsto/earnings
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - StoneHendge - 03-16-2021
Well that was entertaining and a nice break from scouring the internet for more components to hoard.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - grayfox - 03-16-2021
Yeah. Tried to post a few times but the board told me my post was toooooo long - 26000 characters of something!!!
Anyway, forecast eps is not the same as real eps, but I wouldn't be surprised as their financials go up and down over the past few years.
They didn't "make a billion dollars" last year. however. Gross revenue was $1.75 B (down from 2.06B prior yr), but what they "made" was a negative income on all that, -155 million.. So last year they lost money, didn't "make" money. Partly due to a slowdown in centerfire ammo sales, according to their 10K.
But I'll leave the topic now to let all those who want to push the theory, do so. Don't want to deeeprive them of their speech!!!!
Just not buying it.
One final thought, if you want to look for a scarcity-creator-conspiracy..... China. As in this Goldman Sachs note on scarcity of copper and tin, fueled mostly by (from what I can see) China buying up everything in sight. Scarcity that GS projects could last until 2023.
Goldman Sachs: Historic Copper Shortage Loom As Prices Rocket | OilPrice.com
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - A5BLASTER - 03-16-2021
grayfox Wrote:By the way, A5 or somebody please make up some popcorn!!!
Just got off the lake.
Extra butter coming up.
Honestly I dont believe any crazy basement theory to the shortage.
Facts.
Over the course of 2020 every month had near record to new record numbers of first time gun buyers.
Remington got axed, so its production was/is down
Overseas supply has dryed up due too the CHINA VIRUS (FJB).
Horders going full bore and scalpers going crazy buying up everything just to try to flip it this year for 3 to 6 times the original cost
The factory's that were/are up and running had their man power cut due too the CHINA VIRUS (FJB).
And that ladies and gentlemen is how the cookie crumbles.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - LR1955 - 03-16-2021
Razorback Wrote:I am unfortunately from N.Y.! That being said never thought that by stating obvious analytics as delusional, conspiratorial, or naïve those phrases are usually brought up by groups that want to shut down speech or debate.
OK -- well....
The article claims that the big companies are conspiring to crush the smaller ones so they can take more market share. I think the word 'conspiring' means 'conspiracy'. What makes it a conspiracy theory by today's standards is a bunch of statements that aren't backed by any evidence and the author saying 'you can draw your own conclusions' or something of the sort. I have always noted that the real conspiracy theorists always end their blather by asking the reader to 'draw their own conclusions'.
If this conspiracy were true -- where are those ammo makers who are out of business because Vista or Olin or who ever deliberately withheld primers from them? My next question would be why they didn't contract with someone overseas.
Waiting for that list of companies....
LR55
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Klem - 03-17-2021
I heard Donald Pleasance got his hand on a secret Cold War notebook of people living near the Olin and Vista's factories and have been ringing them up quoting strange poems with Russian names.
[video=youtube;KbxIyjecJgw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbxIyjecJgw[/video]
In all seriousness it's just what 55 and A5 are saying. Plus one of the offshore factories making powder for Hodgdens is currently going through a major rebuild and it's Just that all the planets have aligned to make things tight for a while.
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-17-2021
If this conspiracy were true -- where are those ammo makers who are out of business because Vista or Olin or who ever deliberately withheld primers from them? My next question would be why they didn't contract with someone overseas.
Waiting for that list of companies..
As of yet no ammo company is out of business, to be fair the article never claimed any of them were. It stated IF trends keep going this way it is easy to see how they cannot survive and some are trying to get out! So according to you basically the big companies are having trouble keeping up with demand, but the smaller companies are rolling along...based on what...that they are not out of business yet?
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - PVBoom - 03-17-2021
Klem Wrote:I heard Donald Pleasance got his hand on a secret Cold War notebook of people living near the Olin and Vista's factories and have been ringing them up quoting strange poems with Russian names.
[video=youtube;KbxIyjecJgw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbxIyjecJgw[/video]
We are so......, Charles Bronson died 17 years ago...
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-17-2021
A5BLASTER Wrote:Just got off the lake.
Extra butter coming up.
Honestly I dont believe any crazy basement theory to the shortage.
Facts.
Over the course of 2020 every month had near record to new record numbers of first time gun buyers.
Remington got axed, so its production was/is down
Overseas supply has dryed up due too the CHINA VIRUS (FJB).
Horders going full bore and scalpers going crazy buying up everything just to try to flip it this year for 3 to 6 times the original cost
The factory's that were/are up and running had their man power cut due too the CHINA VIRUS (FJB).
And that ladies and gentlemen is how the cookie crumbles.
1. Can you name any other business that is in a jam like the ammo business. Again it is not like ammo companies have not seen shortages in the past 30 years, are they that inept in NOT warehousing or expanding since 1993?
2. Somehow the major ammo suppliers haven't foreseen even the slightest uptick in gun owners? If that is the case how are the small companies going to be in business and why would Olin or Vista sell to them if they are behind?
3. Remington got axed...true, but they also got acquired...right? They were making primers, ammo, and components for most of 2020, in fact is there any evidence that they did not make ammo or components for any length of time in 2020?
4. How can hoarders buy anything if according to you 1. oversees supplies dried up, and factories cut their man power due to the Wuhan flu?
5. Were there any other companies that could not cope with demand for a YEAR, or is it just magically the ammo side of the supply chain, if so why?
6. This is like the left and how climate change is the culprit for EVERYTHING, now the ammo companies use the same strategy with The Wuhan Flu and they do!
Seems alot of guys have plenty of faith in the same business that screws us over every crisis and takes their word as gospel. If you believe this Fantasy Land story than go ahead to me there seems to be plenty of evidence of B.S.!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - Razorback - 03-17-2021
[quote=Klem]I heard Donald Pleasance got his hand on a secret Cold War notebook of people living near the Olin and Vista's factories and have been ringing them up quoting strange poems with Russian names.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5zNNk130V0
Unfortunately or sadly this video is even funnier to believe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIgvoJKovIg
Boy doesn't he look like he hasn't slept in weeks due to him pounding his employees to work harder to keep up with demand?
I love the empty warehouses and the 2 forklifts.
Really I was expecting at least this guy to have ear protection from the cacophony of noise from workers, equipment and yes more than 2 forklifts. No need for a megaphone to hear him over the din of activity from the feverish pace of keeping up with orders. I was literally expecting tractor trailers and cargo containers with ammo piled up at the seams and waves of employees piling up crates of ammo and primers like the army corps of engineers pile sand bags in preparation for a hurricane!
BUT I guess the covid stopped production to a halt I wonder if the toilet tissue CEO's video is this underwhelming and laxed as far as production. Or was it the complete opposite and that is why you do not see a public relations apology video from them!
Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured? - A5BLASTER - 03-17-2021
Razorback Wrote:1. Can you name any other business that is in a jam like the ammo business. Again it is not like ammo companies have not seen shortages in the past 30 years, are they that inept in NOT warehousing or expanding since 1993?
2. Somehow the major ammo suppliers haven't foreseen even the slightest uptick in gun owners? If that is the case how are the small companies going to be in business and why would Olin or Vista sell to them if they are behind?
3. Remington got axed...true, but they also got acquired...right? They were making primers, ammo, and components for most of 2020, in fact is there any evidence that they did not make ammo or components for any length of time in 2020?
4. How can hoarders buy anything if according to you 1. oversees supplies dried up, and factories cut their man power due to the Wuhan flu?
5. Were there any other companies that could not cope with demand for a YEAR, or is it just magically the ammo side of the supply chain, if so why?
6. This is like the left and how climate change is the culprit for EVERYTHING, now the ammo companies use the same strategy with The Wuhan Flu and they do!
Seems alot of guys have plenty of faith in the same business that screws us over every crisis and takes their word as gospel. If you believe this Fantasy Land story than go ahead to me there seems to be plenty of evidence of B.S.!
Yea I sure can.
The offshore oil and gas industry.
But I'm not going to argue with you. I will simply walk away, with the knowledge you wont be a member here for very long with the way your post is going.