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Market Update Q4 2014
I have followed the AR15 and AR10 market since I was a kid in the 1980's. My childhood dream gun was a "CAR-15", only chambered in 7.62 NATO. Back then, there were only collector's pieces consisting of original Dutch Armalite pre-1986 guns, as well as parts kits - lowers made on US steel or aluminum hand machined lowers of varying quality, fit, and feel.
Original Hollywood ArmaLite AR10
A lot has changed, starting with Knight Armament Corporation's introduction of the Eugene Stoner designed SR-25 in 1993, then Eagle Arms/ArmaLite Inc. in 1996. Since then, the AR10 market has slowly grown, with new companies coming on board almost every year since 2004.
KAC SR-25 Match Rifle 1993
In case you haven't noticed, the AR10 market is exploding this year, and mostly not in a good way. That said, it shows that there is a very high demand for AR rifles in larger calibers, mainly .308 Winchester.
The way the market is playing out right now appears to be this:
* Several companies who had plans to introduce an AR10 were retarded in their efforts somewhat after Sandy Hook, but have been able to see that 5.56 and .300 AAC are saturated to very low price points, and very low margins, with a lot of DIY types cutting out most of the opportunity for complete gun profits.
* Since so many customers want more performance than .223 Remington and 300 AAC, .308 WInchester/7.62x51 NATO is the next most common caliber, especially outside of the AR15 market.
* With a long history of AR10 design and development already underway, several companies have realized that the only way to get back those margins is to keep their designs under control in house, so more variation has been introduced to the market.
* We are seeing several companies offering economically priced, forged 7075 aluminum receiver sets following the AR10 pattern. Two that have been released this year are from Palmetto State Armory, and Aero Precision.
* Customers assume that they can purchase these receiver sets, buy the remaining parts from the market, slap them together, and all will be fine when they head to the range. Most are totally unaware of the AR10 minefield of parts non-compatibility, which is only widening, to include the PSA receivers.
* Most are unaware that you need specific recoil system parts for the AR10, including different buffer and recoil spring lengths, different bolt catches, different TD and Pivot pins, and that most of the barrel manufacturers have done basically zero research on what gas port locations and diameters work with the majority of ammunition on the market.
* In short, most of the parts on the market that are sold as parts were never tested with the other parts from other vendors as to fit, function, or safety. Customers who thought they could approach an AR10 build like an AR15 are learning the hard way that there is much, much more to it than this.
* To add even more radical changes to this market, I feel that the new "DPMS" GII has made the previous receiver and BCG designs obsolete when looking at weight and balance of the guns. They went with a totally redesigned BCG, barrel extension, receiver set, gas system, and made the gun feel like an AR15 in terms of weight.
Since it is chambered in .308 Winchester, I have no interest in that, but it is going to make a great platform for other calibers, however, you will need to hand load for most of the others.
I had a chance to hear the impact on steel between my 16" 6.5 Grendel and my buddy's 26" .308 this weekend, and I gotta say, I had a very hard time telling the difference between a 123gr 6.5mm and a 168gr SMK, with the SMK leaving the muzzle much faster.
For customers looking at AR10's, I would suggest saving the thousands that I spent learning that .308 wasn't going to make me happy, and just go straight to a 6.5 Grendel AR15. You will have factory ammo that is meant to work in the AR15, whereas a lot of the ammunition for .308's just does not work well with the untested gas systems that are springing up all over the after market for AR10's.
You will have half the recoil, less wind drift, and 85% of the .308's energy on target. You will have AR15 parts commonality in furniture, recoil systems, receivers, lower parts, charge handles, and armorer tools if you are the DIY type. If you absolutely have to have .308 Winchester, I would get a GII 20" Hunter, see how it shoots, and go from there with trigger options.
If you already know you want to pull the barrel, get an MOE or AP4, have a custom tool made for the unique extension, get your barrel pulled, and have a highly competent AR10 smith do the install of the caliber and barrel profile of your choice, taking into consideration the gas port location and diameter, what powder/bullet combos you will be using, and your accuracy expectations.
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