Is the Ammunition Shortage Real or Manufactured?

[Razorback]

Interesting article that makes a ton of sense if looked at rationally! It boggles the mind to think all of the ammunition short falls are from hoarding and not other ulterior and nefarious, motives...or does it?

https://blog.thebestshootingsite.com/2021/02/19/is-the-ammunition-shortage-real-or-manufactured/

[Double Naught Spy]

Conspiracy theory? Ha! And the reason for other gun-related shortages?

I liked the conspiracy theory that the US military was buying up all the ammo. That was a good one, too.

[grayfox]

I suppose that might be one theory. But whether it stands up - rationally - to real economics I don't know.
In supply/demand - supply depression, vs total revenue, has anyone evaluated whether depressing this mkt so much (as alleged) really increases their revenue? If supply is restricted artificially low so that, even if prices went up, the total revenue is less than a larger supply... well the bean counters would have the say over the "revengers" of any bidding war.

By cutting out a large portion of the buying, ie the selling of their product, that lost revenue I would think (emphasis on "think" as not analyzed yet) outweighs the increased $$/primer they would be getting. IMO lots of people are not buying the $$100s of $$ per kilo primer, as even at those prices I don't see lots of inventory coming to the shelves. True it's disappearing when it shows up, but that would be the case if only 10-15 cases show up... vs hundreds of cases being there and going for a more normal price.

So I think the jury is still out on this theory.

[StoneHendge]

Vista's inventories have continued to decline over the past year. Anyone can go see for themselves: https://investors.vistaoutdoor.com/s...s/default.aspx

Given increased raw materials prices, those inventories are actually likely even lower in terms of units given the amount of lead and copper they contain.

So if the are secret warehouses full of primers, the company is likely engaging in securities fraud.

Not to mention that what the article claims Vista is doing would violate Anti Trust laws.

DNS, at least the IRS isn't buying up all the ammo anymore. I guess their warehouses are still full.

[grayfox]

Nor DHS, now that Tyranni-politano is gone...Lol!!!

[hill37]

The way they are made no wonder they are hard to find.

[keystone183]

that makes a ton of sense if looked at rationally!

No. It doesn't.

[204 AR]

So I read that, and it doesn't make sense to me that Federal and Winchester would have primers stockpiled when there is a secondary market (us) they could sell to. They'd still accomplish their goal of starving the small guy, and still be selling excess primers. What's their end goal with all these primers they have sitting around?

Nope, not buying it.

[Red*Lion]

I think that it is huge demand and people hording.

[Lemonaid]

If by withholding a one cent primer from going to market they make their ten cent ammo sell for fifteen cents, it makes a lot of cents!

[dammitman]

i found ammo at walmart,,,,,,its a trick

[lazyengineer]

So....I guess the cardboard tube cartel was responsible for the Toilet Paper shortage during COVID?

As it turns out, when your market increases by several percentage points in size, combined with a massive increase in consumption demand for hording due to nation-wide tolerated riots that are racist'ly blaming you for the worlds ills; in a world of just-in-time delivery; you run out.

[Lemonaid]

Lazy, the T.P. shortage was due to all the crap we had to deal with!

[PVBoom]

No, that was a stupid article that made some hideous conclusions, like the part about lack of practice causing more accidents and bad press.

[Razorback]

I find that a company with a BILLION DOLLARS of Back Log on Orders & Record-Breaking Profits cannot meet demand while toilet tissue companies can is absolutely missing the plot! What you are seeing here if you put the effort into it is an economic battle on who is going to control for the time being the ammunition supply! It is PURELY ECONOMICS on who can corner this market!

The notion that Vista outdoors or Olin / Winchester, is this inept in warehousing, modernization and expansion, could be true look at Remington. But if the case is that they are inept, how are they this bad at what they do and still have record breaking profits unlike Remington?? https://www.alloutdoor.com/2020/11/1...llion-profits/
Is the record breaking profits due to them holding back orders on a BILLION dollars they are already made without having to fulfil other orders especially to other ammunition manufacturers? If it did wouldn't the be the story instead of hoarding or they haven't modernized since 1993?

Would it not make sense to put their competitors in the ammo business, out of business? How would a BILLION dollars help in procuring resources even more cheaply than they procured them in the past? Can their be a WAR between Vista and Olin/Winchester? Olin / Winchester, not only sells bullets, brass ammo, powder and primers, but also owns the mines for their products? Seems for DECADES there has been an ongoing battle between Vista and Winchester to get military contracts would it not help Vista to be in the position of buying up cheap resources like Olin / Winchester does, to get bids to by low balling their offers? bhttps://military.wikia.org/wiki/Olin_Corporation

The case for raw materials makes little sense, for instance, 90% of lead is procured by battery makers are batteries priced 10x's more than they are worth, are their battery shortages? Does Apple and LG, have trouble making phones due to the lead shortage? The top 3 purchasers of brass are the automotive, music and the meatal working industries. Are Cars, trumpets and door knobs impossible to buy or in short supply? Never mind other ingredients that comprise smokeless powders and primers that are also available in other manufacturing items such as soap, paint and thermometers, etc.! The argument should not be they are hard to get but who can get them cheaper!

In the real world having been shorted a BILLION dollars worth of supply in the largest buying trend ever would have had C.E.O.'s, heads rolling because even warehousing a 1/3 of your product would mean $333 million more dollars in your account! It makes no sense other that they are holding back or slowing their production down on purpose. It makes great business sense!